The ongoing debate in Germany regarding the sustainability of its pension system, following statements from Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is causing concern in Canarias, where German tourists account for 13.6% of annual visitors. According to Guillermo Marrero de la Nuez, Vice-Dean of the College of Economists of Las Palmas, any cuts or delays in accessing benefits could have an indirect effect on the archipelago.
Moderate Risks
Marrero explains that “a slowdown in the frequency of German visitors to our islands” is possible if the adjustments materialise, although he considers a drastic decline unlikely: “That 13.6%, which represents nearly two million people a year, will not disappear overnight”. Nevertheless, he warns that hotels and tour operators specialising in the German market would be the first to feel any reduction.
The European Context
The economist recalls that Germany is not an isolated case: “France has already announced significant cuts, while the UK and Spain both have public debt levels around 100% of GDP, and Italy reaches 135%”. The tax burden is exacerbated by the commitment to allocate 5% of GDP to defence, forcing European governments to seek cuts in social spending, with pensions being the primary target.
In this context, Marrero notes that German families may choose to “slow down or temper their spending” amid uncertainty, affecting both their domestic consumption and international travel.
Impact on Canarias
While he dismisses the likelihood of a severe impact in the short term, the Vice-Dean warns that the combination of debt, inflation, and social adjustments could ultimately diminish the purchasing power of tourists. “If inflation rises, this will clearly affect families’ disposable income”, he elaborates.
Diversifying Markets
In light of these risks, Marrero emphasises the importance of the tourism diversification strategy that Canarias has been developing over the past decades: “The regional government and the island councils have been effective in attracting new source markets. It is an ongoing effort with visible results”.
Reforms in Germany may have indirect effects on German tourism to Canarias, but the archipelago has room to manoeuvre thanks to its diversification policies and the established appeal of its tourist offerings.
